Supervisor Chris Daly’s call for a June 2 convention to select a challenger to Mayor Newsom has three potential outcomes. The most likely is a mass outpouring for Matt Gonzalez to run for Mayor. If Gonzalez refuses to run (and ignore the Chronicle’s report that he has already made this decision), then the second most likely scenario is that Chris Daly will take up the task. Neither Gonzalez nor Daly has anything to lose by making the race, which is why their candidacies make sense. In the unlikely event neither run, then the convention will have defeated Daly’s purpose by affirming that Newsom runs unopposed in November.

As my colleague Paul Hogarth noted last week, there are many convincing reasons why progressives should not expend resources trying to unseat Mayor Newsom in November. But there appear to be enough progressives who want a mayoral challenger that the June 2 convention is likely to represent the kickoff of the race.

Matt Gonzalez was the favored progressive in 2003, and he remains so today. While reports have stated Gonzalez has rejected running, nobody should believe that Matt would reveal his plans to the San Francisco Chronicle--- the publication whose one-sided pro-Newsom coverage helped decide the 2003 race.

Gonzalez has nothing to lose by running for Mayor. Many of his longtime backers want him to run, and if the convention has a large, enthusiastic “Run-Matt-Run” crowd, he will likely make the race.

If Gonzalez does not run, then Daly would almost certainly give the convention the opportunity to back him for the race.

While a Daly candidacy seems far-fetched from a winning standpoint---even Chris has acknowledged the long odds of him beating Newsom in a citywide race---it makes perfect sense for other reasons.

First, Daly has nothing to lose by running.

Daly will be out of office in 2010, and his future electoral options are unclear. A mayor’s race would not weaken his current base, nor jeopardize his political future.

Second, Daly is supremely motivated. Defeating Newsom is his top priority, and he is so focused on the race that he has become the leading attacker of Mark Leno---the State Assembly’s most pro-tenant and progressive legislator---because Leno refused to run for mayor against Newsom (and, Daly has argued, Leno’s challenge to Migden prevented her from running for mayor, despite any evidence she was inclined to do so).

Daly’s motivation is important because it means that bad poll numbers or the lack of campaign donations will not deter him.

Third, if the goal of challenging Newsom is to force the media to cover criticism of the Mayor’s shortcomings, who better than Chris Daly to make this case? The media will love a Daly-Newsom race, and Daly will be given his most high profile platform ever in which to launch salvos against the Mayor.

Even better from Daly’s perspective, his criticism of Newsom that has been negatively framed as “attacks” will be seen as part of the regular discourse of political campaigns once he is an opposition candidate

Daly’s candidacy will ensure that issues overlooked by the media---such as why the mayor’s office allowed Alex Tourk to sign his wife’s timesheets, and the whole Rippey-Tourk timesheet issue---return to center stage. It is hard to believe Daly would give up the opportunity to get months of media coverage for “exposing” the mayor’s record.

Although Newsom would easily defeat Daly, their television debates would get high ratings. Attendance at neighborhood debates would be high, and the race might provoke enough interest to get the attention of San Franciscans otherwise preoccupied with Iraq.

To be clear, I have not had a single conversation with Daly about his running for Mayor. But his recent comments have indicated a willingness to run, and it is hard to believe he would have scheduled the June 2 convention without knowing it would produce a candidate.

Suppose a huge crowd shows up at the convention insisting that progressives should not challenge the Mayor. This would send a message that Daly miscalculated in holding the event, and the media would conclude (incorrectly) that San Francisco progressives are in disarray.

Daly would not make such a mistake. That’s why he or Matt will agree to run on June 2, and the mayoral campaign will begin.

Send feedback to rshaw@beyondchron.org