“Red Alert” shouts the banner headline in the current Bay Area Reporter, reflecting a recent poll showing California’s Proposition 8 moving from far behind to ahead. Some attribute this shift to the Mormon Church’s massive funding of a Yes on 8 TV advertising blitz, which featured Gavin Newsom cheering gay marriage. But others are wondering if so many California activists are focused on Obama that there is less energy and money left to defeat Prop 8. Given how many activists are spending weekends either in Nevada or calling Florida for Obama, the perception that this could result in Prop 8’s passage is understandable. But perception is not reality, and Prop 8 is unlikely to win. Voter fixation on the presidential race and economic crisis has left many to ignore state and local propositions, so that an early October poll is equivalent to September numbers in a normal year. Prop 8 still has not reached the 50% mark that initiatives need to win, and so long as activists do not get complacent, the measure will lose handily.

For the first time all year, the political question I was most asked in the past week was not about the presidential race. Instead, it was about Prop. 8, whose dramatic shift from the most recent Field Poll has set off understandable concern among marriage equality advocates.

Obamamania and Prop 8

The impact of activists devoting energy to the Obama campaign, rather than Prop 8 or other state and local measures, should not be minimized.

In 2004, with California activists either spending the week before the election in Ohio, Nevada, Florida, or New Mexico, or calling voters in those states, two very significant progressive ballot measures went down to narrow defeat.

Prop 66, which would have modified the three strikes law and saved California billions of dollars, lost 53-47%. Moreover, the measure was defeated when Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger teamed up with then Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown to do last-minute radio ads against it; with so many activists preoccupied with other matters, there were not the resources to overcome these late attacks.

A similar scenario brought down Prop 72, which would have required large employers to either provide health care for employees or paid into a fund to cover such costs. This absolutely vital measure lost by less than 1% of the vote, a margin that clearly would have shifted had the presidential race not diverted activists’ focus.

Distinguishing Prop 8

But there is a very important difference between Prop 8 and the above two measures: gay marriage is far more high profile, and has the active backing of far more people than those who supported the 2004 initiatives. Although progressives cared about Props 66 and 72, those measures had nowhere near the passion behind them as does No on 8.

There is a movement behind gay marriage. Many people support prison reform, but no social movement felt personally connected to Prop 66. Similarly, Prop 72 was not deemed by single payer advocates to provide the “solution” to the health care crisis.

What this means is that many California voters needed to be personally contacted in order to understand Props 66 and 72, and the diversion of activist attention to the Kerry campaign prevented the necessary outreach from occurring. Keep in mind that it is always harder to get a “yes” vote, since voters with insufficient information, or who are confused by media blitzes, tend to vote “no.”

And it is the opponents of gay marriage who need a yes vote.

Prop 4 Also Ahead

Proposition 4, the anti-abortion measure voters have already defeated twice, is also leading in the Field Poll. Since Prop 4 is backed by many of the same forces as Prop 8, this is not surprising.

But I would be absolutely shocked if Prop 4 prevailed in November. Again, its current success—though it still has less than 50% support—is attributable to Democrats not paying close attention to state measures.

When voters see the mass editorial board opposition to both Props 4 and 8, and organized labor’s get out the vote operation kicks in as Election Day approaches, the current numbers in both races will shift.

But the recent poll has driven away any hint of complacency that may have existed among gay marriage backers. And by re-galvanizing those concerned about this fundamental human rights issue, the pollsters have contributed to Prop 8’s eventual defeat.

Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the author of the newly released, Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century (University of California Press)