After weeks of politically clueless musings about post-Newsom San Francisco, the media finally figured out the obvious: a special election makes no economic sense, and the new Board of Supervisors is almost certain to be more progressive than the current group. Downtown interests particularly embarrassed themselves in the weeks prior to Gavin Newsom’s decision. Corporate San Francisco was silent when Newsom’s gubernatorial candidacy created the same prospect of an early departure, and its claims that the city would be lost without the Mayor ring rather hollow when they constantly criticize Newsom for not returning phone calls. The bottom line is that Newsom’s departure does not change this unalterable fact: the candidate elected Mayor in November 2011 will be the politically strongest in the potential field, regardless of who is appointed next January.

Although San Francisco’s November 2011 mayoral election is nearly two years away, and we have two state and local elections before then, both the media and political insiders are focused on who will be San Francisco’s next mayor. Political gossip about possible scenarios is certainly more fun that discussing budget cuts, but the fact is that the next elected mayor will be the strongest candidate in the field, a fact that the appointment process next January will not change.

2010 is Democrats’ Year in California

And let’s be clear: Newsom is a dead lock cinch to win the Lieutenant Governor’s race. Janice Hahn lacks the money or political support to win the primary, and voters in November 2010 will not choose a Republican -- in this case, Abel Maldonado -- over Democrat Newsom.

Next November is increasingly looking like 1998, when Gray Davis returned the Governor’s office to the Democrats. I’ve been saying for months that Jerry Brown will easily defeat Meg Whitman, a conclusion bolstered by polls this week that had Whitman only three points ahead of Brown despite spending tens of millions of dollars. The poll also had some bizarre results, such as Brown winning only 58% of the African-American vote.

If I could create a prototype Republican least capable of defeating Jerry Brown, it would be Whitman. And don’t forget Brown’s extraordinary record of handily winning elections, losing only to a very popular and moderate Pete Wilson in 1982 when California’s electorate was significantly more conservative.

The Old vs. New Board of Supervisors

A scenario where the newly seated Board of Supervisors is more conservative than the current Board is almost unimaginable. In District 2, where Janet Reilly is a strong favorite, we are talking about replacing one of Downtown’s strongest allies -- Sup. Michela Alioto-Pier -- with an independent, pro-labor Supervisor who is not beholden to Downtown interests. The District 2 race has been off the political radar screen, but it will bring a much more thoughtful and district-focused Supervisor than the current representative on the Board.

In District 8, progressive Rafael Mandelman is now the front-runner in the wake of Laura Spanjian’s departure. Incumbent Bevan Dufty has been a Downtown favorite, so the outcome in this race is unlikely to cause a conservative shift in the district Supervisor’s mayoral selection.

Nor will it impact the mayoral choice in District 6, where progressives are heavily favored to keep Chris Daly’s seat.

I emphasized this to the Chronicle’s CW Nevius when he interviewed me last week. But Nevius then wrote the opposite, claiming that “it wouldn't take much for the progressives to lose this seat.”

That’s either wishful thinking, part of Nevius’ ongoing campaign to promote the election of Theresa Sparks, or most likely both. But it does not change the fact that a progressive / independent candidate not controlled by Downtown will be the next District 6 Supervisor.

District 10 could give Downtown a new ally, though incumbent Sophie Maxwell is hardly an opponent of Downtown interests. BART Board member Lynette Sweet is the favorite of Downtown interests, and her victory -- in a race that remains up in the air -- would give corporate San Francisco a greater voice on the selection of a new mayor than with Maxwell.

But any small shift in District 10 does not compensate for the virtually certain shift in District 2 and the likely shift to more progressive representation in District 8.

The Selection Process

The progressive Board majority will want to select a progressive Mayor who can win, and likely be the favorite, in November. It simply makes no sense for progressive Supervisors to pick someone who will represent progressive interests for ten months, but cannot win a full four-year term.

Who will that person be?

I’m not going to name names, but consider the criteria: Who is the most progressive candidate who can win a citywide election ten months after being appointed mayor?

The answer is not much of a mystery, and will likely become crystal clear in the months ahead.

Randy Shaw became reacquainted with the track record of former Governor Jerry Brown in writing Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century.