As the second half of the Major League Baseball season begins, the San Francisco Giants find themselves in the unusual position of being a favorite to make the playoffs. This surprising turn of events has been caused by better than expected starting pitching, the emergence of Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval, and the faltering of the Mets and the Cubs, both of whom were projected to exceed the Giants win total. Will the Giants end the year as the 2009 version of last season’s Tampa Bay Rays? Or will competitors like the Rockies overtake our local team, leaving them improved over last year but falling short of the playoffs? Here’s our take.

Giant fans are giddy over the team’s performance this year. And props must be given to such fans as City Attorney Dennis Herrera and Housing Action Coalition Director Tim Colen, who never stopped telling me that the Giants would be better than the 81-win team I projected.

Roadmap to Victory

The Giants appeared to have discovered something that the Dodgers learned in the 1960’s, the A’s learned in the 1970’s, the Braves found out in the 1980’s, the Yankees appreciated in the 1990’s, and the Red Sox concluded in 2004: pitching is the key to baseball success.

When the Giants can trot out Lincecum and Cain, a Ryan Sadowski and a hopefully not out for the season Randy Johnson, they will win their share of games. Juan Marichal must be wondering why it took the Giants so long to understand pitching’s primacy, having spent his entire Giants career playing in only one World Series.

Pablo Sandoval’s emergence as the first Giant position player since Barry Bonds to get fans attention has obviously helped fill the team’s offensive hole. And weak pitching throughout the league has made the Giants offense perform better than anticipated.

There is also the dismal performance of teams thought to be stronger than the Giants.

For example, has any team since 1962 dropped more pop flies than the 2009 Mets? I know half their team has been on the injury list, but even when healthy they cannot hit, pitch, or play defense (wonder how Willie Randolph feels for becoming the fall guy for the team’s failures, which have continued under his successor).

The Cubs, picked by some to win the World Series, are best described as combustible. It looks like Lou Pinella is not the answer here, and Milton Bradley might not last the season.

The Brewers simply aren’t as good as the Giants, as time will show.

The Colorado Rockies are the biggest threat to the Giants playoff chances. They may have nearly as good a chance as the Giants, and it will come down to head to head contests later this year.

On to the World Series?

Should the Giants find a way to reach the playoffs, they could be darn tough in a short series. This is particularly true if Johnson is healthy.

We’ve seen how one hot pitcher -- be it Mickey Lolich, Orel Hersheisher or Josh Beckett -- can carry a team to a World Series victory. Perhaps Tim Lincecum can do this for the 2009 Giants, and we can spend October singing “Lincecum and Cain and two days of rain,” a modified version of the 1948 Boston Braves (“Spahn and Sain”) fight song.

Or perhaps Giant fans will spend another October focused on the 49ers quarterback situation. But having regularly been accused on being insufficiently positive about the Giants, I’m stepping forth and predicting they make the playoffs this year.