If you have read Scorecasting before watching Sunday’s Super Bowl, you will not be surprised to see Patriots Coach Bill Belichick go for it on fourth down rather than punt or kick a field goal. Nor will you be taken aback if even the Giants more conservative coach Tom Coughlin does the same. The reason Belichick and Coughlin are more willing to take what most fans and sports media people believe are risky actions is among the diverse subjects tackled in Sportscasting. The book subjects many common sports beliefs to empirical testing, with often surprising results. Among the most illuminating in addition to decisions about fourth down are the chief reason for home field advantage, the misleading NBA statistic of “blocked shots, ” and the widely held but erroneous view that there are “hot streaks” that helped predict a batter’s next at bat or whether a basketball shot will go in.

If you are picking the Giants to win Sunday’s Super Bowl because you believe, as many fans do, that “defense wins championships,” you might want to take a look at Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim’s Scorecasting before putting money on the game. They rather conclusively prove that in both football and basketball, the truism about defense winning championships is no more accurate than saying that offense wins titles – nearly all champions have proved proficient at both (and for the rare exception of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, there is the offense-driven “greatest show on turf” St. Louis Rams.)

Scorecasting is like a much shorter, multi-sport version of Bill James’ original Baseball Abstract. James revolutionized how people think about baseball by doing something that was unprecedented despite being completely obvious: he subjected longstanding baseball beliefs to the test of statistics and facts.

Scorecasting aspires to do the same. Recall Belichick’s seemingly bizarre decision in a November 2009 game against the Colts when the Patriots faced a fourth and two from their own 28-yard line leading 34-28 with a little over two minutes to play. Shockingly, and I was among those watching at the time, the Patriots did not punt. They went for it on fourth and failed. Peyton Manning then took possession of the ball and brought the Colts to a come from behind victory.

Every sportscaster bashed Belichick’s decision, as did nearly all fans. But Scorecasting insists going for it in that situation was the statistically correct move. And the facts support this unexpected conclusion. I don’t want to give away all of the analysis that produced this assessment, but if you like this type of sports analysis, you will enjoy this book.

The NFL Draft

With football still on fans minds (particularly the San Francisco 49er faithful, who are still upset at their team’s absence from the Super Bowl this week), Scorecasting is also particularly illuminating on the NFL draft.

To wit, how was it possible that sports teams worth hundreds of millions of dollars with unlimited money to do studies on drafting nevertheless relied on a back of the napkin draft analysis for years? This section of the book should embarrass sports team general managers and owners. It also confirms what many fans have long believed: they know more about NFL draft strategy than many of those highly-paid to make these decisions.

Dwight Howard: Overrated

Among the book’s NBA insights is a statistical analysis of blocked shots. Not all are equal. Some blocks send the ball out of bounds, others go to a teammate and represent a change of possession.

Which NBA star has the least valuable blocked shots? Dwight Howard. Howard has never been in the top group of valuable shot blocks, but has been the king of the least valuable blocks in 2007, 2008, and 2009 (his top competitor for least valuable blocks is former Warrior Erick Dampier, which says it all).

Who consistently has the most valuable blocked shots? Tim Duncan, with Ben Wallace next. Unlike Howard, Duncan is all about winning.

Some of the book’s analyses fall short – we didn’t need this book to know that the Cubs fail for reasons other than a curse, and it’s not clear what point the authors are trying to make about the NFL’s efforts to increase black head coaches through the Rooney Rule –but most, like the reasons for umpire bias, show great insight.

If the nation’s sportswriters and sports media personalities read Scorecasting, some longstanding myths about winning in sports might be dispelled. But the very uniqueness of books like this testifies to the persistence of the traditionalist sports perspective, regardless of how disconnected from stats and facts.

Randy Shaw will be rooting for the Patriots on Sunday.