A new weekly tracking poll by Latino Decisions has troubling news for President Obama and the Democratic Party about Latino voting in November. Despite massive and nearly unanimous Republican opposition to comprehensive immigration reform, only 34% of respondents said the GOP was opposing reform; 14% said this about Democrats. And those who felt that the Democratic or Republican Party’s were ignoring reform were virtually the same (38% to 36%). While Obama’s approval numbers remain high (64%), and Latinos still prefer Democratic congressional candidates by a nearly 30% margin, voter enthusiasm among a constituency that brought Democrats their big successes in 2006 and 2008 is far down. Despite this trend, the Obama Administration continues to exclusively promote enforcement and deportations – ignoring the President’s campaign commitment to a comprehensive approach.

None of my expectations for the Obama Administration proved more off base than my belief that the President would aggressively push comprehensive immigration reform. Having researched the impact of Latino voting from the 1990’s through 2008 for my book, Beyond the Fields, I was convinced that Obama and Senate Democrats would deliver for Latinos, if not out of personal conviction, than to maintain a growing Latino political base that could keep the national Party in power for decades.

Sadly, I and many other immigrant rights supporters were wrong. The Obama Administration has been all stick with no carrot for Latino immigrants, and the Latino Decisions tracking poll – conducted by Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, among the nation’s leading scholars on Latino voting – confirms that Latino voters have not been fooled.

Mutual Blame

While progressives blame Republicans for the new wave of anti- Latino hysteria, the poll shows that both parties are blamed for inaction on comprehensive reform. According to Barreto and Segura: “On the one hand, Republicans are seen as the party promoting anti-immigrant policies and face low approval. On the other hand, Democrats are seen as stalling or ignoring the issue and have not been able to energize the Latino electorate.”

While Republicans get in political trouble by aligning too closely with their core base, Democrats lose by betraying their most loyal voters. What still astonishes me about Obama’s approach is that, apart from the Justice Department suit against Arizona (which the Latino Decisions poll finds 66% of Latinos support), he has not even engaged in a public relations campaign to tell Latinos that he feels their frustration, and/or that Republican Senators – not Democrats – are to blame.

For example, many activists have urged the President to do a one-on-one national interview on Univision to explain his lack of action on immigrant rights. The Spanish-language media was a great ally of Obama’s 2008 run, but is now critical of the President – yet the President continues to ignore the opportunity to address their concerns in a way that would reach millions.

Latinos must also be puzzled by the Obama Administration’s intensification of resources at the border despite declining illegal immigration. Latinos understand, as the President apparently does not, that immigrant-bashers will never be satisfied, and that Obama’s efforts to mollify them is seen as weakness, and as a call for raising the stakes even further.

Challenge for November

Obama and Senate Democrats took Latinos for granted, and now must scramble in the next two months to convince them to get to the polls and vote Democratic (by all accounts, Speaker Nancy Pelosi would ensure House passage of comprehensive reform, but understandably will not ask some members to take a tough vote prior to Senate action).

Can Democrats revive Latino voter enthusiasm? Latino Decisions found a huge 51% of Latinos less excited about the Democrats than they were in 2008. That’s a huge gap to make up, and it’s hard to imagine this occurring without the President taking a major role.

Barreto and Segura will be conducting weekly tracking polls for Latino Decisions through November 1, and their findings will tell us much about Democrats prospects for success.

Randy Shaw is the author of Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century.