Yesterday’s talk of the town was a David Binder poll that showed Gavin Newsom losing the 2010 Governor’s race to Jerry Brown – in the Mayor’s hometown. Newsom being behind in San Francisco is like Al Gore losing his home state – calling into question his viability as a statewide candidate. A poll of Los Angeles voters conducted before Antonio Villaraigosa dropped out of the Governor's race showed the Mayor beating Brown on his turf. For years, Newsom was our Teflon Mayor – a celebrity politician with off-the-charts approval ratings. But the poll results lowball the extent of his problems. Newsom’s campaign will argue that the sample under-counted voters under 30 – the only age demographic that prefers him over Brown. But Beyond Chron re-adjusted the numbers to count a larger swath of young voters – and even then Newsom loses to Brown by 11 points in his own backyard. He also gets only half of the LGBT vote in San Francisco, despite having made his mark on marriage equality – and loses the Castro and Noe Valley district. What this says here is we have a Mayor who has been so disengaged from running the City that the very constituents who voted for him are not supporting him for Governor. And if he keeps running his campaign by talking about what a great job he’s doing in San Francisco, it will only get worse.

Have you wondered why there have not been many polls lately on Gavin Newsom’s approval as Mayor? He was in 90% territory back in February 2004 during the “Winter of Love,” which sealed his re-election. It was around 70% in early 2007 when he had his sex scandal, but since then there have not been many polls. The latest one I could find was in February 2008, where his approval was still at 67% – but only 25% “strongly” approved. Today, only 34% would pick him for Governor – with half of his supporters admitting that their opinion “might change” before the election.

When I attended the California Democratic Convention in April, the first thing I saw was a group of college students sporting “Newsom for Governor” t-shirts, and waiving campaign signs. I asked if any of them were from San Francisco, and none of them were. Newsom’s Convention speech was not well received in the San Francisco section – because we all knew his rosy picture of the City was not accurate. Many of us resented his taking credit for universal health care and the Rainy Day Fund, without even having the courtesy of mentioning Tom Ammiano.

I mention these two things because it encapsulates Newsom’s base right now – young people attracted by his rhetoric, while San Franciscans are starting to lose their patience.

But is the latest poll of San Francisco voters accurate? If you believe that only 6% of the City’s electorate for the June 2010 primary will be under the age of 30. Newsom does better with young voters, and I have a hard time believing the poll’s sample reflects San Francisco turnout. So I crunched the numbers to see what the result would be like if 20% of the sample was under 30, all other things being equal. Under that scenario, Newsom would still lose his hometown to Jerry Brown by 11 points – rather than by 16 points.

That’s pretty incredible when you consider that Newsom was re-elected two years ago with 74% of the vote. Newsom consultant Garry South tried to spin the results by saying: “Dianne Feinstein started out nearly 20 points behind John Van de Kamp in the 1990 gubernatorial primary, and ended up beating him by 11 points.” But if a similar poll had been done for that race in August 1989 among San Francisco voters, it’s fair to assume that Feinstein would have been ahead. Any way you look at it, it’s not good for Newsom.

What about LGBT voters? Surely, they would stand behind a politician who made his mark on gay rights. The poll shows San Francisco queers prefer Newsom over Brown, but the numbers are not impressive – 49-33 – with only 29% who say their support for Newsom is “certain.” And as for Supervisor District 8 – which includes the Castro and Noe Valley communities – Newsom actually trails Brown by a 15-point margin. What does this suggest? February 2004 was a long time ago – what has he done lately?

At a time when Newsom has been criticized for neglecting the City’s problems, he is running for Governor on the basis that he has done a good job in San Francisco. But with the election ten months away, it’s clear he has trouble even convincing the voters who know him best that he deserves to be elected Governor. And if Newsom keeps using the City’s accomplishments as his campaign platform, it will only make things worse.

L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa dropped out of the Governor’s race, after he won an underwhelming re-election victory – and many Angelenos felts strongly that he needed to focus more on his day job. But in a L.A. Times poll conducted in June of Los Angeles voters shortly while he was still in the running, Villaraigosa beat Jerry Brown by a 38-31 margin (with Newsom a distant third at 13%.) If Newsom is even less popular in his own home turf, maybe Villaraigosa should re-consider the race.