The San Francisco Board of Supervisors votes today on whether to uphold Mayor Lee’s removal from office of Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi or to reinstate him. As I previously explained, a pre-election vote imperils Mirkarimi’s chances, a sentiment clearly shared by his attorneys when they later sought to delay the Supervisors’ action until after November.

The fate of Ross Mirkarimi has aroused a bitter divide in San Francisco, but all sides can agree that the sequence of events that began in December 2011 and continue through today is a tragedy for Mirkarimi and his family. After winning election, Mirkarimi essentially had the Sheriff’s job for the rest of his working life or as long as he wished to stay in the position. Instead, his personal life has been dragged through the mud and he faces a very uncertain financial future.

If Mirkarimi is ousted today, all he has left is uphill court challenges. If he secures the three votes necessary for reinstatement, petitions to recall him from office are likely to begin circulating in January with a special election likely to decide his fate. This would give Mirkarimi time to build a strong record to defeat a recall, but it would still be a tough election fight.

Rumors of projected votes should be disregarded, as all of the Supervisors understand the legal requirements for confidentiality and are keeping their thoughts on this very high profile vote secret.