During seven years on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, Gavin Newsom was a solid pro-business, pro-real estate ally who was a guaranteed vote for whatever Mayor Willie Brown wanted. The vast ideological gulf between Newsom and Matt Gonzalez galvanized the 2003 mayor’s race, and left some predicting that the Newsom mayoralty would be a re-run of the Frank Jordan years. But despite stumbling early in his tenure over an ill-conceived “Workforce Housing Initiative,” Newsom backed gay marriage and developed a close relationship with organized labor. He then promoted universal health care, immigrants’ rights, and San Francisco as the preeminent “green” city. While Newsom’s local stances have not put him in the progressive camp—he supports more conservative supervisor candidates and regularly battles with left-leaning Supes—his record looks much different from a statewide perspective. In fact, comparing his record with that of his likely fellow Democratic gubernatorial rivals in 2010 reveals that Newsom will likely be the most progressive major candidate in the race, and will garner the support of the state’s leading progressive constituencies.

San Francisco progressives who have waged a multi-year fight against Mayor Gavin Newsom are about to confront an unpleasant reality: the Mayor is likely to be perceived as the leading progressive contender to be California’s next Governor.

How is this possible? Let’s start by looking at Newsom’s record from the perspective of the statewide Democratic electorate.

Newsom’s Record on Statewide Issues

The Environment:

According to a story in the current issue of the Sierra Club Yodeler (“San Francisco takes lead on reducing global warming”), San Francisco has become “the first city to codify the statewide goal {of reducing greenhouse gas emissions} into a set of clear actions for city agencies.” Even those of us who have criticized Newsom for overstaffing his city-funded “greening” staff must concede that his statewide perception is of someone who is far ahead of the curve on addressing climate change.

Organized Labor:

Newsom has become a strong ally of UNITE HERE, and just last week his St. Luke’s Task Force issued a report that essential saves unionized hospital jobs that were at risk due to the facility’s possible closure. The United Health Care Workers division of SEIU is likely to appreciate the mayor’s work in supporting their interests, and SEIU as a whole is likely to back Newsom against potential opponents.

Newsom’s developing relationship with labor has made his statewide ambitions possible, and this key constituency will see him as a strong ally in 2010.

Housing, Homelessness, Tenants

Newsom will enter the 2010 race with the strongest affordable housing record of any Democratic candidate. Statewide voters will not care about his opposition to a housing set-aside charter amendment in San Francisco, but what they will be impressed about is Care Not Cash.

Many San Francisco progressives still oppose Care Not Cash, but talk to housing activists outside the city and they are amazed that San Francisco spends so much money housing homeless single adults. And considering that California has yet to elect a Governor who cares about homelessness, Newsom will be seen as a breath of fresh air.

Newsom’s ability to win support of statewide and local tenant groups depends on his willingness to support Mark Leno’s bills bringing common sense to the state Ellis Act.
Newsom has spoken out against the misuse of the Act by real estate speculators, but to my knowledge did not take a stand on Leno’s bills.

San Francisco tenants desperately need a Governor who will sign legislation preventing speculators from using the Ellis Act, and prohibiting its use as a strategy for back-door condo conversions. If Newsom signs on to Leno’s tenant agenda, the once unheard of notion of tenants backing Gavin Newsom may become a reality.

State Budget

Progressives should not back any candidate for Governor who is not committed to pushing a ballot initiative to eliminate the 2/3-vote requirement for passing a state budget. Progressive constituencies missed a golden opportunity in not putting such a measure on the November 2008 ballot, where it would be virtually certain to pass.

While Newsom has not backed revenue-raising measures in San Francisco, he will have to back a statewide initiative to prevent a small minority of right-wing Republicans from exercising veto power over the state budget. My sense is that he, as well as his fellow Democrats, likely will.

Gay and Lesbian Rights:

I think it took the Supreme Court ruling on gay marriage for some progressives to appreciate Gavin Newsom’s role in bringing this landmark victory. Newsom will not only be the overwhelming choice of gay and lesbian primary voters, but his gay marriage stance will clearly identify him as a progressive statewide in a way that he has never been perceived in San Francisco

Immigrant Rights:

In a state with a rising Latino electorate, Newsom is solidly supportive of immigrant rights.

That’s a thumbnail sketch of how Newsom’s record will be viewed statewide. Let’s compare it with the other leading candidates.

Jerry Brown’s Oakland Anti-progressivism

The strongest likely candidate to challenge Gavin Newsom is current Attorney General Jerry Brown. Brown was a very progressive Governor from 1975-82, and moved even further to the left through the 1990’s, eventually becoming Oakland’s mayor.

Confounding his progressive supporters, Brown was a nightmare as Oakland mayor. He showed contempt for public input, and ran roughshod over parent efforts to stop him from squandering money on his pet project, a military school.

Brown opposed every effort to strengthen Oakland rent and eviction controls. He is so anti-affordable housing that he even cast the deciding vote against an extremely moderate inclusionary housing law.

Jerry Brown loves gentrification. As Oakland mayor, he made Willie Brown sound anti-development. Jerry Brown desperately wanted to get 10,000 people to move downtown, but never cared about preserving or expanding affordable housing.

Brown was a great environmental Governor, but regularly expressed hostility toward environmental regulations as Oakland’s mayor. He is trying to return to his green roots as Attorney General, but his Oakland record leaves a lot of explaining to do.

If elected in 2010, Jerry Brown would take office at age 72. Newsom would be 43. California Democrats are not going to see Brown as charting the state’s future; rather, he will be seen as representing the politics of the past.

Jerry Brown has moved to the political right of Gavin Newsom. Organized labor, environmental groups, and gay and lesbian activists will view San Francisco’s mayor as the more progressive candidate.

Will Villaraigosa Run?

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa would likely win the progressive base if he runs for Governor—but not only is he unlikely to run, but it is not clear if his leaving Los Angeles best advances the progressive cause.

Villaraigosa was elected Mayor in 2005 and faces what could be a tough re-election fight in 2009. Los Angeles voters may not be real happy with a Mayor who starts running for higher office less than a year into a second term, particularly since Villaraigosa’s ambitious agenda for the city will be largely unfinished.

As much as I would like to see Villaraigosa become the first Latino governor in California’s modern history, progressive politicians have an obligation to deliver for the constituencies who elect them. A strongly re-elected Villaraigosa can make a real difference for Los Angeles’ millions of working-class and Latino voters, and those who walked the streets and made the phone calls to elect the Mayor deserve that consideration.

If Villaraigosa succeeds as Los Angeles Mayor, he can write his own future political ticket. There will be two U.S. Senate seats open, and he could also get a Vice-Presidential nod.

In fact, if Villaraigosa turns Los Angeles into a national model of urban success, he likely becomes a strong presidential contender in 2016. He’ll only be 63, and would be as well positioned as anyone to become the nation’s first Latino President.

Villaraigosa surprised many by running in 2005 after winning a City Council race in which he promised not to leave mid-term to run for Mayor. But the timing is simply wrong for a 2010 bid, leaving Newsom as the likely consensus progressive choice.

The San Francisco Bay Guardian and local progressive groups endorsing Gavin Newsom for Governor? Crazy as it sounds, don’t be surprised if this occurs in 2010.