Remember Y2K? The fear that mass computer failure would cause worldwide havoc come January 1, 2000? Books, articles and talk shows about Y2K were pervasive, and naysayers were accused of being “in denial.” All of this hype then evaporated when none of the dire consequences occurred. We now have the 2008 equivalent of Y2K with the notion that the Democratic presidential nominee will be selected by super-delegates at a “brokered convention.” But like the predicted Y2K meltdown, this is not going to happen. Barack Obama will either win the nomination on March 4, or something completely unforeseen and unexpected will occur prior to that day that propels Hillary Clinton back to frontrunner status. Here’s why super-delegates will prove irrelevant, and why there’s little point reading up on the “smoke filled rooms” of the Democrats’ brokered 1924 convention.

The race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be resolved on March 4, avoiding the prospect of a “brokered convention.” There are many obvious reasons for this.

First, the Clinton campaign is on life support. Clinton is emphasizing Ohio and Texas on March 4 in order to ensure she still has a viable campaign by that time; there is no reason to believe that voters will suddenly shift direction and give her the type of smashing victory she will need to regain the lead in the delegate count.

Second, and most importantly, Clinton’s ability to overtake Obama through super-delegates has been curtailed by the Democrats holding their 2008 national convention back in August, rather than in July as typically occurs for the party that does not hold the White House.

This means that a “brokered” convention would occur only two months prior to the November election. This would prevent the Party from healing its internal rifts in time to wage a viable campaign against John McCain.

The so-called “super-delegates” understand this. That’s why they will go with the candidate who has won the most regular delegates—almost certainly Obama-- and will not allow the nomination to remain undecided until the late August convention.

The third reason we will not have a brokered convention is that the last real primary is in June. The Democrats are not going to delay their presidential campaign from June to late August while they engage in a bitter fight over the nominee. Again, the super-delegates understand this, which is why they will avoid this result.

Fourth, the only way Clinton survives past March 4 is with huge wins in Ohio and Texas. Such a scenario would require a shift in the race toward Clinton so large that it would signal that something completely unexpected has occurred which no longer makes Obama a viable candidate.

Given that the Clintons have already thrown everything they could at Obama, such a scenario is if not impossible, the closest thing to it.

From the debate one hears from pundits, on talk shows and in private conversations, one would think that Hillary Clinton has a history of “bouncing back” when she has been counted out. Other than the New Hampshire primary, which she barely won after being way ahead in the polls for years before late polls had Obama leading, when has Clinton performed such a “comeback”? Bill Clinton became the “Comeback Kid” by finishing second to Paul Tsongas in the New Hampshire primary; but Tsongas never had Obama’s base or his presidential stature.

Talk shows need the prospect of a brokered convention, because it allows them to rant about elites dominating the popular will, and insiders rendering voting irrelevant. But let’s not forget that these super-delegate insiders are first concerned with their own political futures, then concerned with the Party, and then third (potentially) the fate of the Clintons.

You’ve got U.S. Senate races across the nation where the Democratic candidate wants Obama – not Clinton – heading the ticket. Many Democratic House candidates are in a similar position, particularly with 29 Republican House incumbents not running in 2008.

On the night of March 4, it will likely be clear that Clinton has no viable path to victory. And the super-delegates will tell Hillary and Bill that their campaign is over, and the time to start planning for November has begun.