December run-offs are always brutal to getting out casual voters, and December run-offs on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving are even worse. Despite heroic efforts by hundreds of Obama campaign veterans in Georgia to elect Jim Martin, they could not replicate the high voter turnout of November 4th to come out again on December 2nd (and even that alone could not have won the election.) Senator Saxby Chambliss is lucky to have gotten a second term, grateful to Sarah Palin for inciting the right-wing base, and fortunate to hail from the most conservative part of the country – in a state still polarized along racial lines. Chambliss dodged a bullet, after for much of the campaign he was
largely expected to easily win re-election. Martin’s loss means that Democrats won’t have sixty votes in the U.S. Senate, but that’s never what this race was about – and it’s a terrible mistake to read it that way. Now the task for progressives is to demand results from Democrats in Congress – as an expanded majority still means that a lot can get done.
It’s hard not to over-emphasize the difficult challenge Jim Martin faced to win this race. Saxby Chambliss is such a detestable figure (with his swift-boat attacks on Max Cleland in 2002, followed by accusing Martin this year of
killing children) that it’s easy to overlook the cold electoral math Martin was up against. Chambliss outpolled Martin 49-46 in the November election, with the Libertarian grabbing 5 percent – and an historic black turnout for Barack Obama that gave the Democrat serious coattails. Not only did Martin need blacks to come out again, but he also needed more swing voters.
December run-offs are always tough at mobilizing activists dead of exhaustion after working their tails off for months. After November 4th, I devoted a lot of energy getting progressive activists to focus on Jim Martin – as the symbolic opportunity of defeating Chambliss was far too tempting, regardless of the odds. But even to my circle of lefty politicos and bloggers, there was a serious burnout factor in giving more money and time. But it was also inspiring to see the Obama volunteer base coalesce behind Jim Martin – as hundreds of volunteers
came to Georgia to try to pull off a miracle.
Unfortunately, the odds were simply too tough … which explains why many prominent Democrats – including Barack Obama – didn’t spend too much political capital on the race. With 92% of precincts reporting, Martin has lost by a 58-42 margin.
Six years ago, an old friend of mine ran for the Berkeley City Council – in a race where his victory depended on a high student turnout. He did well in the November election, but a run-off on the first Tuesday of December – right after Thanksgiving Weekend – proved fatal, and he also lost by 16 points. Again, a progressive lost because the base didn’t turn out. “I don’t want everybody to vote,” said right-winger Paul Weyrich in 1980 – when he
addressed a group of conservative leaders. If everyone doesn’t vote, conservatives stay in power.
Saxby Chambliss gets to remain in Washington for another six years, and I fully expect him to play “obstructionist” in the U.S. Senate to Obama’s progressive agenda. In fact, it was precisely the fear of filibustering Republicans that kept many Democrats focused on trying to win sixty seats – and why the media will spin this election results as being a “set back” for progressive causes. But sixty was never the “magic number” for several reasons. First, even if Martin had won, the 60-vote Democratic majority in the Senate would have included Joe Lieberman of Connecticut – who is no longer a real Democrat.
Secondly, it is
truly unprecedented for any Senate Majority Leader to claim they need 60 votes to get anything passed – which is what Harry Reid has done for the past two years. When Republicans had majorities in the U.S. Senate (such as 2004-2006, when they had a 55-45 majority), they still managed to block Democratic filibusters – because moderate members of either party are reluctant to lob partisan firebombs. Even if Al Franken does not win the Minnesota seat, Democrats will still have a 58-42 majority – which is more than enough to get an ambitious progressive agenda, like the Employee Free Choice Act.
With the Georgia Senate race behind us, the next challenge for progressives is to hold the Democratic leadership accountable. They cannot hide behind the 60-vote requirement, because we’ve given them everything we can to attain a working majority.