When Mark Leno took the unorthodox move of announcing he will challenge Carole Migden in the June 2008 primary, local progressives went nuts. They said it would divide the community, as well as distract energy and resources from other causes. To preempt yet another fratricidal bloodbath, Leno supporter Robert Haaland took the pro-active step last March of distributing a “pledge” among politicos to not engage in hurtful, negative campaigning. But a highly competitive race between two candidates on the East Side in an otherwise uneventful election cycle also creates a favorable dynamic for progressives. If you’re a local activist who wants to pass a ballot measure, there won’t be a better time to do it than in June 2008. Rather than pointing fingers at each other for supporting different candidates, progressives should figure out what propositions they want to get passed in what should be a very favorable election.

In June 2006, public safety activists came together and ran an impressive, grass-roots campaign to pass Proposition A – which would have provided $10 million in needed violence prevention programs. But to everyone’s shock and dismay, Prop A failed by a whisker. Proposition B, an Eviction Disclosure Ordinance promoted by the Tenants’ Union, was on the same ballot. While Prop B had virtually no opposition and should have won by a landslide, it only got 52% of the vote.

Why such a bad election cycle? Because turnout on the conservative West Side was so unusually high – more than twice as high as on the East Side – that it overwhelmed the support for progressive measures. On the West Side that year, there was a competitive three-way primary for the State Senate, and a hotly contested State Assembly race that shattered all fundraising records. Meanwhile, East Side voters had no big races to choose from.

In some ways, the June 2008 primary is looking like it will be a mirror opposite of the June 2006 election. Mark Leno and Carole Migden will be slugging it out on the East Side to win the State Senate race, and Tom Ammiano will be running for the State Assembly (although he is currently unopposed.) But on the West Side, conservative voters will have little reason to go to the polls.

In the classic “East Side versus West Side” battles of San Francisco politics, that’s good news for progressives. Activists should make a concerted effort to promote local ballot measures for the June 2008 ballot that have failed to pass before, or bold and ambitious proposals that have never been tried.

Revenue measures have always had a difficult time passing, as have multiple efforts to pass public power. But with a mobilized East Side electorate and passive West Side voters, progressives could finally accomplish a large part of their agenda. Being able to count on a healthy East Side turnout to vote in a high-profile race is an opportunity that progressives cannot afford to pass up.

Meanwhile, with no serious candidate yet to challenge Gavin Newsom, November 2007 does not look like it will be an exciting election in San Francisco. Progressives should probably hold off on putting ambitious ballot measures this time around, in exchange for a far more favorable turnout next year.

With June 2008 more than a year away, progressives should take advantage of the time by working collaboratively to figure out what would be the best issues to place on the ballot. Call a diverse convention of like-minded activists from different issue-based groups, and form a coordinated campaign to pass serious policy change for June 2008.

Of course, the February 2008 primary should also have a very favorable turnout for progressives. Occasional Democratic voters who support much of the local progressive agenda will come out in droves to choose among Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Like June 2008, such a turnout would help local ballot measures.

But all San Francisco voters will be motivated to come out in February for the presidential primary – including conservative West Siders who oppose local progressive ballot measures. On the other hand, in June 2008 you won’t see a very good West Side turnout because there will be practically nothing to vote on. While a lot of East Side progressives will vote in February, they won’t have as much of a proportional influence as they will have in June.

In June, there also won’t be any high-profile statewide primaries because the Presidential primary has been pushed up to February 2008. Therefore, we should expect an extremely low statewide turnout. Which carries a lot of risk because the right wing is hoping to pass some scary statewide measures, including a “Son-of-Prop 90” that would eliminate rent control.

All the better for San Francisco progressives to mobilize for the June 2008 ballot when they will have a disproportionate voice. If we guarantee a healthy turnout from the East Side of San Francisco, it could help defeat some right-wing statewide propositions that year. In November 2005, San Francisco voters helped deliver the margin of defeat for many of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s drastic ballot initiatives – because labor, the LGBT community and other activists put together a sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation in the City's most progressive precincts.

It’s true that a Migden-Leno race will be controversial, and that San Francisco progressives will be divided among different loyalties. But let’s turn around that problem into an advantage by developing some concrete progressive ideas for the June ballot.

In what will be an otherwise boring election, the Migden-Leno race will help ensure a healthy progressive turnout.

EDITOR’S NOTE: As a private citizen, Paul Hogarth supports Mark Leno for the State Senate – but does not play an advisory role in the campaign. Send feedback to paul@beyondchron.org