Leno Likely to be SF’s Next Mayor
After many declared her mayor-elect, London Breed saw her night long lead give way to a shift of second choice votes from Jane Kim to Mark Leno, giving Leno a roughly 1000 vote lead. Whether that lead proves insurmountable will be clearer when the next batch of votes are announced at 4pm today.
But Leno must be considered the heavy favorite.
Breed took a roughly ten point lead from the absentee ballots to the end of voting, with Leno never coming within 9 points. Leno then sprung into the lead after RCV was completed, potentially winning the election due to a large election day turnout for Jane Kim.
The situation remains fluid with thousands of ballots uncounted.
I picked Breed to win because I felt she would get the most votes across the city. And she did, winning 9 of 11 supervisor districts. Leno got only 25% of first place votes, reflecting a narrower base. But as she did in June 2016, Jane Kim propelled a huge June voter turnout. When a whopping 77% of Kim voters made Leno the second choice, Leno was headed to room 200. It would take a surprising allocation of absentee ballots today at 4pm to bring Breed victory, but given last night’s roller coaster anything remains possible.
Regarding my other San Francisco predictions,Rafael Mandelman won the D8 Supervisors race as I foresaw but by a bigger margin. Voters defeated Props H and D as expected and while Prop C (commercial rent tax for childcare is too close to call) it appears when all votes are counted my prediction it would win would prove correct. Props E, F and G all won as projected.
In the hotly contested East Bay Assembly race, Buffy Wicks easily led the field and will face Dan Kalb or Jovanka Beckles in November. Kalb got past Judy Appel by a larger margin than I expected, and Jovanka Beckles finished less than 200 votes behind Kalb with some votes left to count.
This will not go down as a memorable election night for most California voters, especially as it occurred on the fifty year anniversary of Bobby Kennedy’s historic victory in the California primary. Kennedy was heading for the White House until an assassin’s bullet ended that quest as RFK finished his victory speech.
We’ll have more on the SF mayor’s race and its meaning in the hours ahead.
Filed under: Bay Area / California